IIP(index of industrial production) data certainly have some influence on market. I am trying to compile previous 4-5 years data to take position with caution.
Around 2nd week of January, Industrial Production data from April to November in previous are released. I assume better IIP data will push market upwards.
My analysis only involves IIP data and performance of Market on the month of January.
Below is the snapshot of NSE chart for January month in year 2004 to 2010: (Assuming Nifty Index on 1st trading day of January is 1)
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| Relative chart of Nifty Index for January month |
IIP data released on 16th January 2006:
IIP figures reveal a 9.4% growth rate in April-November 2005, against 9.1% during the corresponding period in the previous fiscal.
IIP data signal: +ve
Other Indicators:: +ve
Market reacted positively to IIP data in January’06.
IIP data released on 12th January 2007:
Country’s industrial output clocked a growth of 14.4 per cent in November 2006 as against 6 per cent in November 2005, the fastest in 11 years. Manufacturing, which has the highest weight in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) basket, accelerated by 15.7 per cent in November this fiscal, the highest since June 1996.
IIP data signal: +ve
Other Indicators:: +ve
Market reacted positively to IIP data.
IIP data released on 12th January 2008:
In November 2006, industrial growth was 15.3%.
Manufacturing sector growth also fell sharply to 5.4% in November 2007, against 17.2% in the same period the previous year. Consumer goods, consumer durables and consumer non-durables witnessed negative growth in the month.
IIP data signal: -ve
Other Indicators:s: –ve
Market was down around 15-20% fired by global slowdown.
IIP data released on 12th January 2009:
Index for industrial production (IIP) recorded a positive growth of 2.4% in the month of November 2008 compared with negative growth of 0.4% in the previous month (October 2008).
IIP data signal: +ve
Other Indicators: –ve
The data on industrial production for November has been a pleasant surprise, but it had absolutely no impact on the stock market. The other reason might be that many global and industrial indicators did not paint a rosy picture of the economy
IIP data released on 12th January 2010:
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) figure went up by 11.7 percent in the month of November last year. The growth was mainly fuelled by the demand for manufactured and consumer goods.
Other Indicators: neutral /-ve
IIP data signal: +ve
However market could not react strongly and ended up lower level in January 2010. In 2010 January, market was entering to recovery phase and investors kept on booking profit.
This January global clues are encouraging. IIP signal is going to be positive (Assumption).
My bet is due. (10-12 Jan 2011).
(Caution: IIP data are yet to declare. Market in January is very volatile)